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RISING SEAS As the planet warms, the sea rises, and coastlines flood, how will we face the danger of rising seas? Storm of the Century By the time Hurricane Sandy veered toward the northeast coast of the United States on October 29, 2012, it had mauled several countries in the Caribbean and left dozens dead. Faced with the largest storm the Atlantic had ever produced, New York and other cities ordered mandatory evacuations of low-lying areas, but not everyone complied. Those who chose to ride out Sandy got a preview of the future, in which a warmer world will lead to rising seas. Brandon d'Leo, a sculptor and surfer, rented a second-floor apartment across the street from the beach on New York City's Rockaway Peninsula. At about 3:30 in the afternoon, he went outside and saw waves crashing against the nine-kilometer-long boardwalk. A short time later, d'Leo and a neighbor were watching the sea through the glass door of his living room when his neighbor saw something alarming. "I think the boardwalk just moved," she said. Within minutes, another surge of water lifted the boardwalk, and it began to break apart. Three large sections of the boardwalk smashed against two pine trees in front of d'Leo's apartment. The street had become a river 1.2 meters deep; cars began to float. After the storm, d'Leo said, "I have six surfboards in my apartment, and I was thinking, if anything comes through that wall, I'll try to get everyone on those boards and try to get up the block. "After a difficult night's sleep, d'Leo went outside and saw that while the water had retreated, thigh-deep pools still filled parts of some streets. "Everything was covered with sand," he said. "It looked like another planet." Coast lines at Risk By the end of the century, a hundred-year storm surge like Sandy's might occur every decade, with coastal cities like New York now facing a double threat: rising oceans and more severe storm surges. By 2070, experts estimate, 150 million people and $35 trillion in property in the world's large port cities will be at risk from coastal flooding. How will the cities cope? Malcolm Bowman, a researcher at the State University of New York, believes that storm-surge barriers must be built across New York City's harbor. Compared with some other leading ports, New York is essentially defenseless in the face of hurricanes and floods. London, Rotterdam, St.Petersburg, New Orleans, and Shanghai have all built levees and storm barriers in the past few decades. When Hurricane Sandy struck, New York paid a high price for not having such protection. The storm left 43 dead and cost the city about $19 billion, and according to Bowman, storm-surge barriers could have prevented it. He says, "It might take five years of study and another ten years to get the political will to do it. By then, there might have been another disaster. We need to start planning immediately." Mayor Michael Bloomberg outlined a $19.5 billion plan to defend New York City against rising seas. His proposal called for the construction of levees, local storm-surge barriers, sand dunes, and more than two hundred other measures. It went far beyond anything planned by any other U.S. city, but the mayor dismissed the idea of a harbor barrier. "A giant barrier across our harbor is neither practical nor affordable," Bloomberg said. Retreat from the Coast With the threat of sea-level rise everywhere, cities around the world have turned to the

海平面上升 随着地球变暖，海平面上升，海岸线洪水泛滥， 我们将如何面对海平面上升的危险？ 世纪风暴 当飓风桑迪转向美国东北海岸时 2012年10月29日， 它袭击了加勒比海的几个国家，造成数十人死亡。 面对大西洋有史以来最大的风暴， 纽约和其他城市下令强制撤离低洼地区， 但并非所有人都遵守了。 那些选择乘坐桑迪的人对未来有了预览， 世界变暖将导致海平面上升。 Brandon d'Leo，一位雕塑家和冲浪者， 在纽约市洛克威半岛海滩对面租了一套二楼公寓。 下午3点30分左右，他出去了 看到海浪拍打着九公里长的木板路。 不久之后，利奥和一位邻居正在看海 当他的邻居看到一些令人担忧的东西时，他穿过客厅的玻璃门。 “我想木板路刚刚动了，”她说。 几分钟后，又一股水柱掀起了木板路，木板路开始破裂。 三大块木板路撞上了利奥公寓前的两棵松树。 街道变成了一条1.2米深的河流；汽车开始漂浮起来。 风暴过后，利奥说：“我的公寓里有六块冲浪板， 我在想，如果有什么东西穿过那堵墙， 我会尽量让每个人都加入这些董事会，并努力站起来。 “经过一个艰难的夜晚的睡眠， 利奥走到外面，看见水退了， 大腿深的水池仍然充斥着一些街道的一部分。 “一切都被沙子覆盖了，”他说。 “它看起来像另一个星球。” 海岸线面临风险 到本世纪末，像桑迪这样的百年风暴潮 可能每十年发生一次，像纽约这样的沿海城市 现在面临着双重威胁：海平面上升和更严重的风暴潮。 专家估计，到2070年，将有1.5亿人和35万亿美元的财产 世界上的大型港口城市将面临沿海洪水的风险。 城市将如何应对？ 马尔科姆·鲍曼，纽约州立大学的研究员， 认为必须在纽约市港口修建风暴潮屏障。 与其他一些主要港口相比， 面对飓风和洪水，纽约基本上毫无防御能力。 伦敦、鹿特丹、圣彼得堡、新奥尔良和上海 在过去的几十年里，他们都修建了堤坝和风暴屏障。 当飓风桑迪来袭时，纽约为没有这样的保护付出了高昂的代价。 这场风暴造成43人死亡，该市损失约190亿美元， 根据鲍曼的说法，风暴潮屏障本可以阻止它。 他说：“可能需要五年的研究，再过十年才能获得这样做的政治意愿。 到那时，可能会发生另一场灾难。 我们需要立即开始计划。" 市长迈克尔·布隆伯格概述了一项195亿美元的计划 保卫纽约市免受海平面上升的影响。 他的建议要求修建堤坝， 当地风暴潮屏障、沙丘等200多项措施。 它远远超出了任何其他美国城市的计划， 但市长驳回了修建港口护栏的想法。 彭博社说：“在我们的港口建造一个巨大的屏障既不实用，也负担不起。”。 从海岸撤退 随着海平面上升的威胁无处不在，世界各地的城市都转向了

Netherlands for guidance—a country that has faced and overcome the problem of rising seas. One Dutch firm, Arcadis, has prepared a design for a storm-surge barrier to protect New York City. The same company helped design a barrier 3.2 kilometers long that protected New Orleans from Hurricane Isaac's four-meter storm surge in 2012." lsaac was a tremendous victory for New Orleans," said Piet Dircke, an Arcadis executive. "All the barriers were closed; all the levees held; all the pumps worked. You didn't hear about it because nothing happened." New Orleans may be safe for a few decades, but the long-term prospects for it and other low-lying cities look dire. Even if we begin reducing our emissions of heat-trapping gases tomorrow, oceans will likely rise as Earth slowly adjusts to the amount already in the atmosphere. Among the most vulnerable cities is Miami. "I cannot envision southeastern Florida having many people at the end of this century," says Hal Wanless, of the University of Miami's Department of Geological Science. "We think Miami has always been here and will always be here. How do you get people to realize that Miami—or London—will not always be there?" Unless we change course dramatically, our carbon emissions will drastically change the geography of many shorelines by the next century, if not sooner, and large numbers of people will have to abandon many coastal areas of the world. "From the Bahamas to Bangladesh and a major amount of Florida, we'll have to move, and we may have to move at the same time," says Wanless. Columbia University geophysicist Klaus Jacob sees most of Manhattan's population fleeing to higher ground and the island becoming a kind of Venice, subject to periodic flooding, perhaps with canals and yellow water cabs. At different times in different countries, engineering solutions will no longer be enough. Then the retreat from the coast will begin. Dutch Lessons Can a single storm change not just a city's but a nation's policy? It has happened before. The Netherlands experienced its own coastal catastrophe nearly 70 years ago, and it transformed the country. The storm roared in from the North Sea on the night of January 31, 1953. Ria Gehuk was six years old at the time and living on an island in the Dutch province of Zeeland. She remembers a neighbor knocking on her family's door in the middle of the night to tell them that the dike had failed. Later that day, the whole family climbed to the roof. Geluk's grandparents lived just across the road, but water poured into the village with such force that they were trapped in their home, and they died when it collapsed. The disaster killed 1,836 in all, including a baby born on the night of the storm. Afterwards the Dutch began an ambitious program of dike and barrier construction called the Delta Works, which lasted more than four decades and cost more than $6 billion. One crucial project was the eight-kilometer barrier built to defend Zeeland from the sea. The final component of the Delta Works—a movable barrier protecting Rotterdam Harbor and some 1.5 million people—was finished in 1997. Like other sea barriers in the Netherlands, it's built to withstand a 1-in-10,000-year storm—the strictest standard in the world. The transparent domes of Rotterdam's Floating Pavilion represent an even more innovative approach to taming the sea. The three domes—each about three stories tall— are made of a plastic that is a hundred times as light as glass. Though the domes are used for meetings and exhibitions, their main purpose is to demonstrate the potential of floating urban architecture. The city anticipates that as many as 1,200 homes will float in the harbor by 2040. "We think these structures will be important not just for Rotterdam but for man cities around the world," says Bart Roeffen, the architect who designed the pavilion. An inscription on the side of a storm-surge barrier in Zeeland says "Hier gaan over het tij, de maan, de wind, en wij"— Here the tide is ruled by the moon, the wind, and us. It reflects the confidence of a generation that took for granted— as we no longer can—a reasonably stable world. "We have to understand that we are not ruling the world," says Jan Mulder of Deltares, a Dutch coastal management firm. "We need to adapt.”

荷兰是一个面临并克服海平面上升问题的国家。 一家荷兰公司Arcadis已经为保护纽约市的风暴潮屏障设计了一个方案。 同一家公司帮助设计了一个3.2公里长的屏障 这保护了新奥尔良免受2012年飓风艾萨克四米风暴潮的影响。” 对于新奥尔良来说，lsaac是一场巨大的胜利，”Arcadis高管Piet Dircke说。 “所有的障碍物都关闭了；所有的堤坝都保持着；所有的水泵都工作了。 你没有听说这件事，因为什么都没发生。" 新奥尔良可能在几十年内都是安全的， 但它和其他低洼城市的长期前景看起来很糟糕。 即使我们明天开始减少温室气体的排放， 随着地球慢慢适应大气中的含量，海洋可能会上升。 迈阿密是最脆弱的城市之一。 “我无法想象佛罗里达州东南部 在本世纪末有很多人，”哈尔·万利斯说， 迈阿密大学地质科学系。 “我们认为迈阿密一直在这里，也将永远在这里。 你如何让人们意识到迈阿密或伦敦不会永远在那里？" 除非我们大幅改变路线，否则我们的碳排放量 到下个世纪，许多海岸线的地理将发生巨大变化， 如果不能更早，大量人口将不得不放弃世界上的许多沿海地区。 “从巴哈马群岛到孟加拉国和佛罗里达州的大部分地区， 我们将不得不采取行动，我们可能不得不同时采取行动，”Wanless说。 哥伦比亚大学地球物理学家克劳斯·雅各布看到了曼哈顿的大部分人口 逃到更高的地方，岛变成了一种威尼斯， 受周期性洪水的影响，可能是运河和黄水出租车。 在不同国家的不同时期，工程解决方案将不再足够。 然后，从海岸撤退将开始。 荷兰语课程 一场风暴不仅能改变一个城市的政策，还能改变一个国家的政策吗？ 以前也发生过。 荷兰在近70年前经历了自己的沿海灾难， 它改变了这个国家。 1953年1月31日晚，风暴从北海呼啸而来。 Ria Gehuk当时六岁，住在荷兰泽兰省的一个岛上。 她记得有个邻居敲她家的门 半夜告诉他们堤防已经坍塌了。 当天晚些时候，全家人爬上了屋顶。 格鲁克的祖父母就住在马路对面， 但洪水涌入村庄，他们被困在家里， 当它倒塌时，他们死了。 这场灾难共造成1836人死亡，其中包括一名在风暴当晚出生的婴儿。 后来，荷兰人开始了一项雄心勃勃的堤防和屏障建设计划，称为三角洲工程， 该项目持续了四十多年，耗资超过60亿美元。 一个关键项目是为保护泽兰免受海水侵袭而建造的8公里长的屏障。 三角洲工程的最后一个组成部分——保护鹿特丹港的可移动屏障 约150万人于1997年完工。 与荷兰的其他海上屏障一样， 它的建造可以抵御10000年一遇的风暴，这是世界上最严格的标准。 鹿特丹漂浮馆的透明圆顶 代表了一种更具创新性的驯服海洋的方法。 三个圆顶，每个大约三层楼高-- 它们是由比玻璃轻一百倍的塑料制成的。 虽然圆顶用于会议和展览， 他们的主要目的是展示浮动城市建筑的潜力。 该市预计，到2040年，将有多达1200户家庭漂浮在港口。 “我们认为这些结构不仅对鹿特丹很重要 但对于世界各地的城市来说，” 设计展馆的建筑师巴特·罗芬说。 泽兰风暴潮屏障一侧的铭文说 “风，风，风”-- 在这里，潮汐是由月亮、风和我们主宰的。 它反映了一代人的信心，他们认为这是理所当然的-- 正如我们不再能够做到的那样——一个相当稳定的世界。 “我们必须明白，我们不是在统治世界，” 荷兰海岸管理公司Deltares的Jan Mulder说。 “我们需要适应。”

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