15 A2 what are the odds

CHAPTER 1 Determining the Odds DO YOU UNDERSTAND WHEN THE WEATHER REPORT SAYS THERE IS A 60% CHANCE OF RAIN? THEN YOU UNDERSTAND A LITTLE ABOUT ODDS. Did you know that you have a 1 in 10,000 chance of getting hit by lightning? Or that you have a 1 in 175,711,536 chance of winning the Mega Millions lottery? You have a much better chance of being born with eleven fingers or eleven toes— that's 1 in 500. The chance, or probability, that something will or won't happen is called "the odds." Let's look at an easy example. Tonight, there is a 100% chance that the sun will go down, and there is a 100% chance that it will come up again. So, the odds are very good that the sun will go down tonight and come up tomorrow! But other odds aren't as high.

当天气预报说有60%的可能性会下雨时，你明白吗？ 那你就懂点赔率了。 你知道你被闪电击中的几率是万分之一吗？ 或者你有1 / 175,711,536的机会赢得超级百万彩票？ 你出生时有11个手指或11个脚趾的几率要大得多——这是1 / 500。 某件事发生或不发生的机会或概率被称为“几率”。 让我们看一个简单的例子。 今晚，太阳有百分之百的可能会下山，也有百分之百的可能会再次升起。 所以，太阳今晚下山，明天再出来的可能性非常大！但其他方面的可能性没有这么高。

What are the odds of getting a hole in one in golf? They are different for different people. For a professional golfer, the odds are 1 in 3,756. But for the average person who plays golf on the weekends, the odds are lower, about 1 in 12,750. Here's another example: You have 100 days of school left. Your teacher tells you that there will be two tests sometime before the school year ends. What's the chance, or probability, that you will have a test tomorrow? It's 1 in 50, or a 2% chance that you will have a test tomorrow. So what is the chance that you will study tonight? Remember: many different things can determine the odds. For example, if you buy 100 lottery tickets, your chances of winning the lottery are better than if you buy one ticket.

打高尔夫球一杆进洞的几率是多少？ 它们对不同的人来说是不同的。 对于一名职业高尔夫球手来说，赔率是1 / 3756。 但对于在周末打高尔夫球的普通人来说，这种几率要低一些，约为1 / 12750。 再举一个例子：你还有100天的学期。 你的老师告诉你在学年结束前的某个时候会有两次考试。 你明天考试的可能性有多大？ 这是1 / 50，或者说你明天有2%的机会进行测试。 那么你今晚学习的可能性有多大？ 记住：许多不同的因素可以决定成功的几率。 例如，如果你买100张彩票，你中奖的机会比你买一张彩票的机会大。

CHAPTER 2 Will Nature Attack? NATURE CAN BE DANGEROUS! IN THIS CHAPTER WE WILL TALK ABOUT THE CHANCES THAT NATURE CAN HURT YOU. The odds that the average person will get hit by lightning are low. However, the odds are much higher that a person who is hit by lightning is a man. Men are much more likely to get hit by lightning than women. What changes the odds? Women usually go inside when lightning comes near, but men don't! When there is a lightning storm, men are much less likely than women to stop doing an outdoor activity such as golfing, fishing, or working in the garden. Think about it: if you stand outside with a golf club, the odds of getting hit by lightning are much higher than if you are inside a house. So if you are playing golf and you see lightning, go inside. Your chances of getting a hole in one may decrease, but so will your chances of dying!

第二章大自然会来袭吗？ 大自然是危险的！在本章中，我们将讨论大自然可能伤害你的可能性。 普通人被闪电击中的几率很低。 然而，被闪电击中的人是男性的几率要高得多。 男人比女人更容易被闪电击中。 是什么改变了这种可能性？当闪电临近时，女人通常会进去，而男人不会！当有雷暴时，男性比女性更不容易停止户外活动，比如打高尔夫球、钓鱼或在花园里干活。 想想看：如果你拿着高尔夫球杆站在室外，被闪电击中的几率要比你待在屋里高得多。 所以，如果你在打高尔夫球的时候看到闪电，赶紧进去。 你一杆进洞的机会可能会减少，但你死亡的机会也会减少！

Lightning can kill you, but it is unlikely. If you are hit by lightning, there is a 90% chance that you will live. One man, Roy Sullivan, was hit by lightning seven times and lived! Why did he get hit so many times? Sullivan was a park ranger in Virginia in the United States. He was outside around tall trees in storms all the time. So, his odds of getting hit were higher than usual. But he still seems very unlucky, doesn't he? Animals can be dangerous, too. On TV and in movies, we often see people getting attacked by sharks, but it is much more likely that a venomous snake will bite you (probability: 1 in 3,500,000) or that a dog will kill you (probability: 1 in 700,000). Even trees are more dangerous than sharks. What are the odds of getting killed by a falling coconut? 1 in 250,000!

闪电可以杀死你，但这不太可能。 如果你被闪电击中，你有90%的机会活下来。 有一个人，罗伊·沙利文，被闪电击中了七次，却活了下来！为什么他被打了那么多次？ 沙利文是美国弗吉尼亚州的一名公园管理员。 他总是在暴风雨中站在高大的树旁。 所以他被击中的几率比平时高。 但他看起来还是很不走运，不是吗？ 动物也可能很危险。 在电视和电影中，我们经常看到人们被鲨鱼袭击，但更有可能的是毒蛇会咬你（概率：350万分之一）或狗会咬死你（概率：70万分之一）。 甚至树木都比鲨鱼更危险。 被掉落的椰子砸死的几率有多大？ 25万分之一！

The odds that a shark will attack you are only 1 in 11,500,000. And, if you are attacked, you probably won't die. In fact, you are 76 times less likely to be killed by a shark than to be killed by lightning. Why are the odds so different? Well, we don't taste good to sharks. So even if we are attacked by one, we are less likely to be killed. Bethany Hamilton, a 13-year-old girl from Hawaii, was surfing when a shark attacked her. It bit off her arm, but it didn't kill her. She survived! One month later, the brave teen was surfing again.

鲨鱼袭击你的几率只有1150万分之一。 而且，如果你被攻击，你可能不会死。 事实上，你被鲨鱼杀死的可能性比被闪电杀死的可能性低76倍。 为什么几率如此之大？ 我们对鲨鱼来说不好吃。 所以即使我们被一个攻击，我们也不太可能被杀死。 来自夏威夷的13岁女孩贝萨尼·汉密尔顿（Bethany Hamilton）在冲浪时遭到鲨鱼袭击。 它咬掉了她的手臂，但没有杀死她。 她活了下来!一个月后，这个勇敢的少年又开始冲浪了。

Do you ski? Snow can be very dangerous, especially when there is an avalanche. The heavy falling snow can throw your body down the mountain and then cover you completely. In Switzerland, your odds of being in an avalanche are 1 in 50,000. If someone can dig you out of the snow in 15 minutes, you have a 90% chance of surviving. But, if the snow is more than two meters deep, your odds of surviving are almost zero. To decrease your chance of being in an avalanche, don't ski in a snowstorm— 90% of avalanches happen during a snowstorm.

你滑雪吗？雪是非常危险的，尤其是发生雪崩的时候。 大雪会把你的身体从山上扔下去，然后把你完全盖住。 在瑞士，遭遇雪崩的几率是五万分之一。 如果有人能在15分钟内把你从雪中挖出来，你有90%的生还机会。 但是，如果积雪超过两米深，你存活的几率几乎为零。 为了减少遭遇雪崩的几率，不要在暴风雪中滑雪——90%的雪崩都发生在暴风雪中。