15 A2 what are the odds

CHAPTER 1 Determining the Odds DO YOU UNDERSTAND WHEN THE WEATHER REPORT SAYS THERE IS A 60% CHANCE OF RAIN? THEN YOU UNDERSTAND A LITTLE ABOUT ODDS. Did you know that you have a 1 in 10,000 chance of getting hit by lightning? Or that you have a 1 in 175,711,536 chance of winning the Mega Millions lottery? You have a much better chance of being born with eleven fingers or eleven toes— that's 1 in 500. The chance, or probability, that something will or won't happen is called "the odds." Let's look at an easy example. Tonight, there is a 100% chance that the sun will go down, and there is a 100% chance that it will come up again. So, the odds are very good that the sun will go down tonight and come up tomorrow! But other odds aren't as high.

What are the odds of getting a hole in one in golf? They are different for different people. For a professional golfer, the odds are 1 in 3,756. But for the average person who plays golf on the weekends, the odds are lower, about 1 in 12,750. Here's another example: You have 100 days of school left. Your teacher tells you that there will be two tests sometime before the school year ends. What's the chance, or probability, that you will have a test tomorrow? It's 1 in 50, or a 2% chance that you will have a test tomorrow. So what is the chance that you will study tonight? Remember: many different things can determine the odds. For example, if you buy 100 lottery tickets, your chances of winning the lottery are better than if you buy one ticket.

CHAPTER 2 Will Nature Attack? NATURE CAN BE DANGEROUS! IN THIS CHAPTER WE WILL TALK ABOUT THE CHANCES THAT NATURE CAN HURT YOU. The odds that the average person will get hit by lightning are low. However, the odds are much higher that a person who is hit by lightning is a man. Men are much more likely to get hit by lightning than women. What changes the odds? Women usually go inside when lightning comes near, but men don't! When there is a lightning storm, men are much less likely than women to stop doing an outdoor activity such as golfing, fishing, or working in the garden. Think about it: if you stand outside with a golf club, the odds of getting hit by lightning are much higher than if you are inside a house. So if you are playing golf and you see lightning, go inside. Your chances of getting a hole in one may decrease, but so will your chances of dying!

Lightning can kill you, but it is unlikely. If you are hit by lightning, there is a 90% chance that you will live. One man, Roy Sullivan, was hit by lightning seven times and lived! Why did he get hit so many times? Sullivan was a park ranger in Virginia in the United States. He was outside around tall trees in storms all the time. So, his odds of getting hit were higher than usual. But he still seems very unlucky, doesn't he? Animals can be dangerous, too. On TV and in movies, we often see people getting attacked by sharks, but it is much more likely that a venomous snake will bite you (probability: 1 in 3,500,000) or that a dog will kill you (probability: 1 in 700,000). Even trees are more dangerous than sharks. What are the odds of getting killed by a falling coconut? 1 in 250,000!

The odds that a shark will attack you are only 1 in 11,500,000. And, if you are attacked, you probably won't die. In fact, you are 76 times less likely to be killed by a shark than to be killed by lightning. Why are the odds so different? Well, we don't taste good to sharks. So even if we are attacked by one, we are less likely to be killed. Bethany Hamilton, a 13-year-old girl from Hawaii, was surfing when a shark attacked her. It bit off her arm, but it didn't kill her. She survived! One month later, the brave teen was surfing again.

Do you ski? Snow can be very dangerous, especially when there is an avalanche. The heavy falling snow can throw your body down the mountain and then cover you completely. In Switzerland, your odds of being in an avalanche are 1 in 50,000. If someone can dig you out of the snow in 15 minutes, you have a 90% chance of surviving. But, if the snow is more than two meters deep, your odds of surviving are almost zero. To decrease your chance of being in an avalanche, don't ski in a snowstorm— 90% of avalanches happen during a snowstorm.